ࡱ> zy>( / 0LDArialܖ 0ܖ0ttP 0"@ . @n?" dd@  @@`` `+L   !#%&')*,-067; 0AA@3| ʚ;ʚ;g4jdjd 0dppp@ <4dddd@w 0t, 80___PPT10 pp#Northern Eurasia Climatic HOT SPOTS$$# E.P. Gordov, E. Kollen*, M.V. Kabanov**, D Lalas***, V.N. Lykosov****, I.I. Mokhov*****, A.S. Shvidenko******, E.A. Vaganov*******, S.S. Zilitinkevich******** Siberian Center for Environmental Research and Training and Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia * Stockholm University, Sweden, ** Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia ***National Observatory of Athens, Greece, **** Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia, ***** Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia, ******International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria ******* Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, ********Helsinki University, Finland(PTP2                       p     g OUTLINE 6Background Objectives Consortium Work Program Elements776  Background    The proposed interdisciplinary project is devoted to a better understanding of interactions between the ecosystem, atmosphere, and human dynamics in northern Eurasia under the impact of global climate change  in the line with the new IGBP regional, integrated Earth Science studies emphasis. It might be consider as quite a candidate for FP7 Integrated Project (if any) within Sustainable development, global change and ecosystem thematic area (Global change and ecosystems field). ,8ZZ       Objectives $   Understanding through better quantification of global and regional climate variability caused by feedback processes between atmosphere and biosphere under pressure of global change on boreal zone Its main objectives are: To gather and systemize available regional atmospheric and environmental data collections, and to prepare geographic information resources for Northern Eurasia areas under consideration To perform measurements of missing environmental characteristics especially those related to greenhouse gases (GHG) exchange between biota and atmosphere and make a step to monitoring of current natural and climatic variations in Northern Eurasia RPP <    Objectives $   To integrate basic and regional information resources required for regional climate modelling and environmental impact assessment into an Internet-accessible information system, thus giving an access to this valuable information to national and international professional community To develop mathematical models for GHG and water exchanges under varying climatic conditions accounting for specifics of land-atmosphere exchanges in Northern Eurasia (boreal forests, peat lands and permafrost)PPP6BW     Current Consortium Siberian Center for Environmental Research and Training Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia Stockholm University, Sweden, National Observatory of Athens, Greece, Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, Helsinki University, Finland&ZH{     W   Work Program Elements$    " Conclusions $  The Project Work Program is a draft now and it should be made more strong in process of enlarging and refining the Consortium FP7 is now under preliminary discussion only. It is just a time for the community to start lobbing such project 2ZEZ !#P.P.S. Thank you for attention!, F   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> f^(    6)  `}  V"1@075F 703>;>2:0 \  0+  `  1@075F B5:AB0 B>@>9 C@>25=L "@5B89 C@>25=L '5B25@BK9 C@>25=L OBK9 C@>25=L M  02 ^ `  X*  0  ^   Z*  0 ^ `  Z*B  s *޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@Pq .D>@<;5=85 ?> C<>;G0=8N$ 0  $(  r  S Z )  r  S   H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@ pq$ 0 0 $(   r  S B  r  S *   H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@eӔ$  0 P$(  r  S  `}   r  S  `  H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@i2 0 _W,(  , , <l KBackground and Justification The state and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in northern Eurasia and their interactions with the Earth's Climate system is one of the main concerns of number of national and international programs now. They are aimed at enhancing scientific knowledge and developing predictive capabilities to support informed decision-making and practical applications in this region. The proposed interdisciplinary project devoted to a better understanding of the interactions between the ecosystem, atmosphere, and human dynamics in northern Eurasia under impact of global climate change is consistent with the new ESSP regional, integrated Earth Science studies emphasis.4 < w ! H , 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.!@P)[ 0 4(  4` 4 6F Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget, particularly the boreal forests and peat lands, as circumpolar boreal forest systems alone contain more than 5 times the carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon in the World's tropical forests. Climate warming induces natural terrestrial processes to release more carbon dioxide and methane, which is a particular concern in the boreal zone where more than 60% of the carbon exists as peat. Much of the peat is imbedded in permafrost, which may be melting. Additionally, a warmer boreal zone climate is resulting in more frequent and larger fires in all of the terrestrial ecosystems.  H 4 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10."@ 0 }`d(  d d 6hz  w Reasonable models speculate that these effects could eventually lead to a "runaway greenhouse" scenario. Aforestation and reforestation may not help either, as recent research has shown that in large parts of Northern Eurasia, the decrease in surface albedo by forestation is as important as carbon sequestration in its forcing of climate. As a result, forest carbon sinks in these regions could exert a much smaller cooling influence than expected, or even exert an overall warming influence.Hm      H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10."@ 0 L(  LJ L 6[r  nNorthern Eurasia is a vast area about which relatively little is known in the Western scientific world, and as the region where temperature rise is expected to be the greatest, feedbacks to the atmosphere are potentially large. These effects create the possibility for large and significant biological, climatic and socioeconomically coupled land use changes throughout this region. Science issues for northern Eurasia are growing in global importance not only in relation to climate change and carbon, but also for aquatic, arid, and agricultural systems, snow and ice dynamics, and human health issues among others. oo:>  1  H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.&@0T8 0 p8(  p p 6j  0North Siberia belongs to the Arctic/Subarctic region which is recognized as the area of the world where climate change is likely to be largest. It is also an area where natural variability has always been large (ACIA, 2001). Permafrost, representing the solid phase of the hydrosphere, is an unique feature of this region. Changes in the extent and distribution of the permafrost have a positive feedback on climate, both on regional and global scales, and vice versa. There is a strong relation of climate changes to the river floods in permafrost basins.11.$    H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.&@ 0 g_ph(  h h 6̑  Y7Some of the potential effects include the way that water and energy are exchanged with the atmosphere, radiatively active gases are exchanged with the atmosphere, and freshwater is delivered to the Arctic Ocean. The International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) reported in 2003 that the circumboreal region containing northern Eurasia is one of the critical "Switch and Choke" points in the Earth system, and proposed that what is needed for this region is a "glue" to fit multidisciplinary pieces of research together into a fully integrated, regional program.8   9bg   v   4    H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.&@0TD 0 TD(  T  T 6h<r  0Tundra and taiga are basic components of the terrestrial vegetation in North Siberia. Climate change modelling studies show a very strong response in the Arctic region in spite of the fact that climate forcing from greenhouse gases has a minimum at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (ACIA, 2001). It is now believed that this could be related to variations of the Arctic Oscillation which undergoes semi-chaotic variations with considerable amplitudes on longer time scales combined with strong regional ocean and land surface feedback processes. 11:e     H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'@!< 0 1)t(  t t 6r #Forests are important part of the global carbon cycle and regional/global hydrological cycle. Terrestrial carbon and hydrology budgets are closely linked together, so that a change in the atmospheric CO2, concentration affects the water balance of the land covered by forests. Change in the atmosphere circulation will affect forests more than other vegetation types because of their large aerodynamic roughness. The physiological effect of an increase in the CO2 concentration on plant photosynthesis and stomatal resistance is quite significant. Changes in the atmospheric circulation affect forests more than other vegetation types because of their large aerodynamic roughness. : ^   H t 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'@!< 0 \T|(  | | 6  NBefore industrial period, the uptake of CO2 by forests on a large regional scale was, in average, balanced by soil respiration, but there can be imbalances from year to year due to the natural climate variation and disturbances like fires. Over the last century, there have been alarming changes in climate - changes that have had major impacts on the boreal forest. These impacts are comparable with those caused by burning fossil fuels, and continued global climate change could cause severe and irreversible forest damage. To understand how CO2 might affect land surface  climate interactions, it is necessary to consider how vegetation might respond to CO2 directly and how this response may influence the water and energy balance of vegetated land surfaces. H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'@  0 yqX (  X X 6@ͱZB  kMethane is another important trace gas, which is produced under strictly anoxic (anaerobic) condition. Such conditions usually occur in wetlands. Wetlands are the largest source for tropospheric CH4 and estimates cover a wide range between 50-150 Tg/year. Natural and cultivated wetlands represent approximately 40% of the sources of atmospheric methane (IPCC, 1994). The primary controlling factor has been shown to be water table height. Soil temperature also strongly affects the rate of methanogenesis and can significantly affects annual variations in methane emission rate. Despite the importance of CH4 emissions from wetlands, it is still unclear how these emissions will respond to global climate change.b   5     H X 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'@ 0 e]0\(  \ \ 6?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXZ[\]^_`abcdefghjklmnoprstuvwx{Root EntrydO)Current UserqSummaryInformation(YPowerPoint Document(̰DocumentSummaryInformation8i